Delaplaine Seed Co. May 17, 2008
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2008 Rice acres
 
How will your rice acres change in 2008?
Same as 2007
2 percent higher than 07
3 percent higher than 07
5 percent higher than 07
2 percent lower than 07
3 percent lower than 07
5 percent lower than 07
 

Hot Off The Press
Click here for rice trials.

The Paragould Childrens home has a farm and is needing some corn for feed for the livestock. Contact me if you would be willing to donate a few bushels, it is a good cause.

Click here for UofA soybean yields

Click here for USDA S&D report


Long Grain Rice

4/12 /08 All New and finished

I would like to share with you some ideas on the rice market as we head into planting. First I will discuss old crop. Supplies are tight due to 2 years of acreage cuts and good demand. This is keeping old crop prices high as we head into planting. The old crop cash market is very firm and that will, I think help to keep futures high as we go into the spring and summer. We started this year with a stocks number of about 29 million cwt. and we will end with about 11 million cwt. So old crop is in good shape as long as the the whole economy stays strong.

Now on to new crop. We will enter this year with last years ending stocks we mentioned above of 11 million cwt. and we will be lucky to produce last years production number of 142 million cwt. This will give a supply of about 168 million cwt when we add in imports. Our six year average use is 171 million cwt. , since we cannot use more than we have we have to have price ration supply. Prices have to rise to choke off demand, so far that has not happened in this market. So this makes new crop continue to look good. I would like to point out at this time that the lead new crop month of september is currently about $1.35 cheaper than the old crop month of july. To back track a little last year we started out with 29 million cwt. and produced 142 million and we have old crop cash at well over $8.00 per bushel, this year we will start out with 11 million cwt, which is about 18 million less than last year and we will be lucky to produce last years 142 million cwt. This tells me that at a $1.35 a cwt discount to old crop new crop is a bargin and will go up even higher than it is today, as a matter of fact I think sep will go up at least $2.00 a cwt more than it sits at today and it will bring nov jan and mar at least that much if not more. This should translate into new crop prices of at least $9.00 bushel. This is not to mention all of the high prices in the rest of the world. asian prices are now and have been trading alot higher.

The long term situation in rice is very interesting in that in the US and the rest of the world even as prices rise to record levels production does not increase. In asia they need new science to raise yields, and in the US economics prohibit an increase in production. Look for this situation to continue in asia untill they adopt GMO rice and in the US as long as oil stays high.

Local Conditions
Delaplaine, AR
Chg Zip Code: 
Temp: 75oF Feels Like: 77oF
Humid: 47% Dew Pt: 54oF
Barom: 29.88 Wind Dir: W
Cond: Sunny Wind Spd: 12 mph
Sunrise: 5:55 Sunset: 8:04
As reported at WALNUT RIDGE, AR at 12:00 PM
 
Local Radar
Delaplaine, AR
Local Radar
 
Local Forecast
Delaplaine, AR

Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
High: 81oF
Low: 52oF		 High: 76oF
Low: 59oF		 High: 80oF
Low: 55oF		 High: 83oF
Low: 64oF		 High: 84oF
Low: 63oF
 
DTN Weather Summary
Dry, Mild Saturday in Central U.S.
Bryce Anderson (Bio) – DTN Meteorologist

Saturday will be another dry day with mild temperatures across the central U.S., except for some light showers in the eastern Great Lakes. Weather will be favorable for field work and planting over all but the southern Midwest, where drying will be slowed by recent rains. » More DTN Weather Commentary
Posted at 2:23PM Fri May 16, 2008 CDT

DTN Grain News
DTN Early Word Grains 05/16 06:05
DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/16 12:02
DTN Closing Grain Comments 05/16 13:55
DTN National HRS Index 05/16
Portland Grain Review 05/15
Minneapolis Protein Trends
MGE Stocks of Grain 07/17
Grainbelt Weather Roundup
FARM MARKET NEWS - CORN REPORT FOR Fri, May 16

Indexes
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R2000 741 05/16/2008   2:06 PM CST + 0
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Did You Know?

In 1986 the first genetically engineered vaccine was licensed by USDA, for pseudorabies in swine
Fact courtesy of the USDA

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Pioneer Seed
 
There is a new flie on wheat injury due to freeze issues.Click below and on the next page you will be able to view several short videos on Pioneer soybean varities.
 
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Long Term Rice Market Outlook
 
1/10/07

A new section on rolling spreads and how they work, has been added for a working example and will be updated in the future.
 
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2008 Rice and News
There were two Usda reports out this morning, a supply and demand report and the stocks on hand as of Dec 1 of 2006. Production was raised due to a slight increase in yield and exports were also raised slightly. The net effect is an increase in ending stocks of long grain from 20.6 million cwt. to 22.1 million cwt. I feel that if we stay on course that use is about 5 million cwt to high, and if were lowered in future reports this would bring stocks up to 27.1 million cwt. Last years final was 32.7 million cwt.

The stocks report showed long grain rough rice stocks at 109 million cwt this as compared to 124 million the previous year. These numbers reflect stocks as of DEc 1 in their respective years.There are also some milled stocks on hand but those number are smaller and are not two different this year vs last year.

These are not bullish numbers,but the numbers have not meant much as of late. Specs have bought the market and it has gone up and the cash market has not moved as much and basis gets wider. If the other grains do not affect rice I would guess we go lower today. The market has had a pretty good run the last two weeks, someone may buy the market up today but it is hard to see the reason. Although I do not think this market going to crash due the trend in all commodities and with the acreage cut in the 2007 crop. I have not looked at the other reports yet, they could have some influence. More on the other report in a few minutes.


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Quotes
 
RR - ROUGH RICE - CBOT
  High Low Last Chg
Jul 2059'0 1966'0 2006'5s -27'5
Sep 1880'0 1840'0 1875'0s 52'5
Nov 1895'0 1850'0 1875'0s 35'0
Jan 1910'0 1910'0 1910'0s 35'0
Mar 1935'0s 27'0
May 1960'0s 27'0
Jul 1985'0s 25'0
 
S - SOYBEANS - CBOT
  High Low Last Chg
Jul 1402'0 1366'0 1378'0s 30'4
Aug 1395'0 1366'0 1377'2s 30'2
Sep 1369'0 1348'0 1359'2s 31'2
Nov 1366'0 1336'0 1349'2s 30'0
Jan 1372'0 1350'0 1361'6s 29'4
Mar 1383'0 1360'4 1371'6s 28'6
May 1384'0 1368'0 1377'4s 27'4
 
C - CORN - CBOT
  High Low Last Chg
Jul 608'0 588'0 591'0s -8'0
Sep 619'4 601'0 603'4s -7'6
Dec 632'0 614'0 616'6s -5'6
 
W - WHEAT - CBOT
  High Low Last Chg
Jul 783'0 767'0 775'4s 4'0
Sep 796'0 782'0 790'0s 4'0
 
CT - COTTON #2 - CSCE
  High Low Last Chg
Jul 84.09 82.20 83.52s 2.43
Oct 0.00 0.00 85.33s 2.48
Dec 87.50 85.60 87.45s 2.68
 
DJ - DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVG - CBOT
  High Low Last Chg
Jun 1301'5 1289'5 1298'3s -1'3
Sep 1298'3s -1'6
Dec 1299'8s -1'3
 
LC - LIVE CATTLE - CME
  High Low Last Chg
Jun 94.750 93.800 93.875s - 0.475
Aug 100.050 98.875 99.100s - 0.400
Oct 106.400 105.200 105.550s - 0.400
 
@S - SOYBEANS - CBOT
  High Low Last Chg
Jul 1402'0 1349'4 1378'0s 30'4
Aug 1400'0 1347'4 1377'2s 30'2
Sep 1375'0 1335'4 1359'2s 31'2
Nov 1369'2 1320'0 1349'2s 30'0
Jan 1380'0 1335'4 1361'6s 29'4
Mar 1389'4 1346'0 1371'6s 28'6
 
@YM - MINI-SIZE DOW ($5MUL) - CBOT
  High Low Last Chg
Jun 1303'3 1289'2 1298'3s -1'3
Sep 1303'7 1289'8 1298'3s -1'6
Dec 1299'8s -1'3
 
@RR - ROUGH RICE - CBOT
  High Low Last