DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/13 11:02
All Grains Higher at Midday
Corn is 9 to 10 cents higher, soybeans are 16 to 17 cents higher, and wheat
is 6 to 7 cents higher.
David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 70 points. The dollar index
is 25 points lower. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are mostly lower
with crude down $0.30. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious
metals are mixed with gold up $9.
Corn trade is 9 to 10 cents higher at midday with short covering continuing
post report after the positive close yesterday and bigger prevent plant acres
than expected. On the WASDE report, yield was 181.8 BPA vs. 180.3 expected with
new-crop carryout at 2.756 billion vs. 2.795 billion expected, and world stocks
at 317.5 million metric tons vs. 320.4 expected. Ethanol margins are seeing
some pressure from corn rally. Basis has remained fairly flat in recent days,
with pressure likely at locations with a strong crop coming soon. Weekly export
sales were mediocre at 377,200 metric tons of old crop and 533,100 of new with
another 110,000 metric tons on the daily wire. On the September contract, trade
continues to have resistance at the 20-day at $3.18 which we moved above at
midday with the upper Bollinger Band at $3.33 the next round up, with chart
support at the lower Bollinger band at $3.03.
Soybean trade is 16 to 17 cents higher at midday with fresh buying as trade
turns its focus back to exports from yield talk for now with another 197,000
metric tons sold to China, and 202,000 metric tons to unknown. Meal is $8.00 to
$9.00 higher and oil 15 to 25 points lower. The WASDE report raised yields to
53.3 BPA with carryout at 610 million bushels vs. 527 million expected with
world stocks at 95.4 million metric tons vs. 98.2 expected. The ral remains in
the tighter recent range vs. the dollar. Weather looks to continue to be good
for most into podfill. Weekly export sales remained strong at 570,100 metric
tons of old crop, and 2.84 million of new crop, 182,400 metric of old meal, and
70,000 of new, -2,500 of old oil, and 48,700 of new. The September chart now
has resistance at the $9.05 recent higher with support the 20-day at $8.86.
Wheat trade is 6 to 7 cents higher following the lead of the row crops at
midday with increasing enthusiasm through midday. The WASDE report put all
wheat production at 1.838 billion vs. 1.832 expected, with carryout at 926
million bushels vs. 946 expected, and world stocks at 316.8 million metric tons
vs. 313.5 expected. The ruble is holding vs. the dollar as well with more
Middle East tenders being scheduled into fall along with weaker prices going to
exporters on the ones that filled today. Kansas City is at a 72-cent discount
to Chicago with spreads as narrow as they've been since early July, while
Minneapolis is back to a 2 cent premium. Weekly export sales were a bit softer
at 367,900 metric tons. Kansas City September chart support is the fresh low at
$4.09 3/4, with the 20-day back above the market as nearby resistance at $4.32.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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