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DTN Midday Grain Comments     04/20 11:26

   Grain Futures Up Big Midday Tuesday

   Corn is 15 cents higher on May, 9 cents higher on December, soybeans are 17 
to 23 cents higher and wheat 7 to 13 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow off 275 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index went to a new low for the move but has bounced to 0.08 higher at midday. 
Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are lower with crude down $1. 
Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals are higher with gold up $8.


   Corn trade was firmer overnight then saw some explosive upside with short 
covering early in the day session, getting nearby to 20 cents higher. At 
midday, May is 15 cents higher with new crop up 9 cents. The new high for the 
move on May is $6.11 3/4 at this juncture, and December new crop went to $5.33 
1/2. Expect buy stops above these numbers the rest of the day with a chance of 
limit-up if short covering occurs Tuesday afternoon. Ethanol was firm Monday 
into Tuesday morning, giving corn support. The cool weather and snow has not 
given corn a chance to see early plantings or early development, which is 
limiting sellers. The forecast remains cool with the first few days of May, 
currently expected to still see many daily lows across the Corn Belt in the 
40s. Corn basis continues to hold firm throughout the belt. The weekly Monday 
afternoon USDA progress numbers had planting at 8% on the five-year average, 
with emergence at 2% -- same as the average. On the May contract, chart 
resistance is the fresh contact high with support at the $5.84 10-day moving 
average then the 20-day at $5.68.  


   Soybeans are up around 23 cents on May to 17 cents higher on November at 
midday. Meal is up $4.50 and bean oil up 1.80 cents on nearby to 0.85 cent on 
new crop. The upward momentum and lack of selling has allowed trade to march to 
new highs. Traders now expect a very active rest of the week going into May 
option expiration on Friday. The cool weather will limit early planting and 
early development in the U.S. The uncertainty is limiting sellers this week. 
Although the market knows we can still have the crops planted near 
normal/average timeframes, we still lose some early advantage with the 
country-wide extreme cold start to the growing season. The weekly report had 
soybean plantings at 3% complete versus the 2% average. On the May soybean 
chart, support is at the 10-day at $14.18 with resistance at our morning high 
of $14.85 1/2 then $15!


   Wheat trade is 7 cents higher on Minneapolis at midday with the winter wheat 
contracts sitting 13 cents higher. Momentum has stalled at midday with futures 
around a dime below the early highs. Support is coming from the row crop 
strength and the cold air and snow across Kansas, but market bears argue the 
moisture is OK. The downtrend in the dollar is supportive for exports with a 
new dollar low for the move overnight. KC has narrowed back to a 40-cent 
discount to Chicago with Minneapolis now only a nickel above Chicago. The 
weekly export inspections were strong Monday at 613,595 metric tons, helping 
fuel this April futures recovery. The weekly crop progress Monday afternoon 
showing winter wheat heading at 10% versus the 14% average, and conditions 
unchanged at 53% good to excellent. The spring wheat planting were at 19% 
versus 12% on average. KC May on the chart has support at the 50-day at $6.07, 
with resistance at our daily high of $6.35 3/4 then the $6.64 contract high 
printed in late February.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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