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DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/10 10:56
Corn Futures Flat-Lower at Midday; Soybeans Mixed; Wheat Lower-Higher
Corn futures are flat to a penny lower; soybean futures are narrowly mixed;
wheat futures are 2 cents lower to 4 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are flat to a penny lower; soybean futures are narrowly mixed;
wheat futures are 2 cents lower to 4 cents higher. The U.S. stock market is
mixed with the S&P 270 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 20 points
higher. The interest rate products are weaker. Energy trade is mixed with crude
1.30 lower and natural gas .10 higher. Livestock trade is mixed after initial
sharply higher trade in cattle. Precious metals are firmer with gold 8.50.
CORN:
Corn futures are flat to a penny lower with trade continuing to chop along
the lower end of the range as we head toward the WASDE report tomorrow. On the
report, trade is looking for old crop carryout at 1.347 billion bushels (bb)
versus 1.365 bb last month, and new crop yield at 181.1 bushels per acre (bpa)
with carryout at 1.733 bb versus 1.750 bb last month. Ethanol margins should
remain steady here short term with unleaded and corn both holding the range.
Short-term weather continues to show moisture for most with serious heat
limited for most as we head deeper into pollination. The daily wire was quiet
with weekly sales better than expected at 1.262 million metric tons (mmt) of
old crop, and 888,600 metric tons (mt) new. Basis looks to remain rangebound
short term. On the September chart, the 20-day at $4.15 is resistance, with the
fresh low at $3.96 1/4 as support.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are narrowly mixed with action grinding along the lower end
of the range with product action continuing to stay sideways. Meal is flat to
1.00 higher and oil 5 to 15 points lower. On the report, trade is looking for
old crop carryout at 359 million bushels (mb) versus 350 mb last month, and new
crop at 305 mb versus 295 mb last month and yield at 52.4 bpa verus 52.5 bpa
last month. Weather should generally remain good for development short term.
Basis will likely remain flat short term. The daily wire was quiet with weekly
sales improved at 503,000 mt old crop, 248,400 mt new, 207,700 mt of meal, and
4,000 mt of oil. On the September chart, resistance is the 20-day at $10.29,
and the fresh low at $9.91 3/4 as support.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 2 cents lower to 4 cents higher with light short covering
picking up for winter wheat as we follow the gains in European values. On the
report, trade is looking for 895 mb of carryout versus 898 mb last month with
all wheat production at 1.912 bb versus 1.921 bb last month. The hard red wheat
areas should continue to build momentum harvest wise as we move well past the
halfway point with spring wheat drying back out short term. MATIF wheat is back
through nearby resistance this morning. Weekly export sales were stronger at
567,800 metric ton. On the KC September Chart, resistance is the 20-day at
$5.44, with the lower Bollinger Band at $5.09 as support.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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