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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 11/25 07:49
Cotton Higher as We Move Into Holiday
The cotton market is somewhat higher Tuesday as the likely perceived record
net-short speculative position is experiencing short-covering ahead of the long
Thanksgiving break.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market is somewhat higher Tuesday as the likely perceived record
net-short speculative position is experiencing short-covering ahead of the long
Thanksgiving break. In addition, outside markets are higher based on the hope
for an interest rate cut next month.
December cotton is in delivery. Tuesday there were 28 notices that have been
tendered against the spot month for a total of 171. The issuer was RJO and the
stoppers were Term, SG Americas, and Macquarie. The process runs through Dec.
7.
Last Friday, the CFTC issued its Commitments of Traders Report. The data
showed managed-money funds had net-sold some 11,586 contracts, pushing their
overall net-short position to 76,326. Their current record stands at 79,986.
Yet there is an on-going catch-up process that will take until January for the
CFTC to complete. Thus, some participants believe that the managed-money funds
are already net-short another record level.
USDA issued its last-of-the-season crop progress data Monday. The numbers
show that the 2025 crop is 79% gathered versus last year's 83% and the
five-year 80% harvesting pace.
USDA released a catch-up export sales report Tuesday, but we can't find it!
Thursday the market will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Thus, all
near-term USDA reports will be delayed by a day. There will be a delayed
opening on Friday with trading starting at 8 a.m. and will close early at 1:30
p.m.
Daily chart support for March cotton stands at 63.40 cents and 63.00 cents,
with resistance at 65.00 cents and 65.60 cents. Tuesday morning's estimated
volume is 9,961 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229)
890-7780.
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