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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 05/01 07:40
Cotton Struggles to Breathe
After three hard down days, the cotton market is essentially flat.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
After three hard down days, the cotton market is essentially flat. It is
searching for a reason to trade higher, but the confusion and chaos of the
trade tariffs and talks are making it difficult. Traders will assess Thursday's
export sales, Friday's jobs report and CFTC update for price direction.
USDA just released its weekly export sales with the following numbers:
"Net sales of Upland totaling 108,400 RB for 2024/2025 were up 4 percent
from the previous week, but down 21 percent from the prior 4-week average.
"Increases primarily for Malaysia (25,600 RB), Bangladesh (25,400 RB),
Vietnam (15,200 RB, including 2,200 RB switched from China, 400 RB switched
from South Korea, 400 RB switched from Hong Kong, 100 RB switched from Japan,
and decreases of 500 RB), Thailand (14,800 RB, including decreases of 500 RB),
and Indonesia (8,900 RB, including 100 RB switched from Japan), were offset by
reductions for Hong Kong (400 RB), China (400 RB), South Korea (400 RB), and
Guatemala (100 RB).
"Net sales of 32,900 RB for 2025/2026 were reported for Indonesia (15,800
RB), Pakistan (15,400 RB), China (900 RB), Turkey (600 RB), and Vietnam (200
RB).
"Exports of 366,000 RB were up 25 percent from the previous week and 5
percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to
Vietnam (108,000 RB), Turkey (96,100 RB), Pakistan (52,300 RB), Bangladesh
(28,100 RB), and Malaysia (11,100 RB).
"Net sales of Pima totaling 13,200 RB for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from
the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.
"Increases primarily for Vietnam (5,500 RB, including 100 RB switched from
Japan), Peru (3,500 RB), Egypt (3,000 RB), Bangladesh (400 RB, including
decreases of 700 RB), and India (400 RB), were offset by reductions for Japan
(200 RB).
"Total net sales of 200 RB for 2025/2026 were for Turkey. Exports of 3,900
RB were down 73 percent from the previous week and 64 percent from the prior
4-week average.
"The destinations were primarily to India (2,300 RB), Egypt (900 RB), Peru
(400 RB), Pakistan (100 RB), and Japan (100 RB)."
Spot May cotton saw no deliveries Thursday. Thus far, there have been nine
notices issued by StoneX Financial. The stoppers were Macquarie and SG
Americas. Delivery period will run through May 7.
To date, cumulative sales have reached 106% of USDA's forecast for the
2024/2025 season versus the five-year average of 105% for this point in the
season. Wednesday's disappointing first quarter U.S. GDP and April ADP payroll
numbers clearly added pressure to the cotton market. Thus, Friday's monthly
jobs data will be a key event.
For Thursday, close-in chart support for July cotton stands at 65.00 cents
and 64.00 cents, with resistance at 67.00 cents and 67.80 cents. Thursday
morning's estimated volume is about 6,780 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling
(229) 890-7780.
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