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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 07/10 11:48
Livestock Contracts Drift Lower Into Friday's Noon Hour
No bids are on the table and it looks like the bulk of this week's cash
cattle trade is done.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is mixed heading into Friday's noon hour as traders
simply don't have enough immediate support to keep the contracts from trailing
lower. No new cash cattle trade has developed following Thursday's business.
December corn is up 7 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up
$4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 84.71 points and NASDAQ is up
52.52 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Yes, midday boxed beef prices may be trading higher -- but that's not enough
support to offset the $7.00 to $10.00 decline seen in this week's fed cash
cattle market to help ease trader concerns. August live cattle are down $0.55
at $234.70, October live cattle are down $1.30 at $230.30 and December live
cattle are down $1.42 at $230.12. No new cash cattle trade has developed
following Thursday's trade. Southern live deals were marked at $248, $7 lower
than last week's weighted averages, and Northern dressed deals were marked at
mostly $393, $10 lower than the prior week's weighted averages. No bids are on
the table currently and it's likely the bulk of this week's trade is done.
Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets of
2026. Beef production for 2026 was decreased by 150 million pounds as the
decrease in steer and heifer slaughter has more than offset the increase in cow
slaughter. Quarterly fed steer price projections for 2026 were mostly
supportive as steer prices in the third quarter are now anticipated to average
$255 (up $3.00 from last month's report), steers in the fourth quarter are
expected to average $255 (unchanged from last month), steers in the first
quarter of 2027 are anticipated to average $250 (unchanged from last month) and
steers in the second quarter of 2027 are anticipated to average $255. Beef
imports for 2026 decreased by 50 million pounds and beef exports for 2026 also
decreased by 10 million pounds.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.09 ($383.90) and select up $6.16
($369.65) with a movement of 61 loads (46.31 loads of choice, 5.46 loads of
select, 2.58 loads of trim and 6.67 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Without seeing support from the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle
contracts are also trading lower. August feeders are down $2.65 at $353.50,
September feeders are down $2.70 at $350.30 and October feeders are down $2.25
at $347.07. It's most likely at this point the market will continue with its
downward trend through Friday's close.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is trading mixed again as the market wants to move
higher but needs buy-in from traders to conquer the market's resistance at $100
in the spot August contract before that will happen. A couple of the nearby
contracts are trading higher, but by and large the vast majority of the
deferred contracts are trading lower. July lean hogs are up $0.40 at $94.75,
August lean hogs are up $0.62 at $98.77 and October lean hogs are down $0.75 at
$84.90. The projected CME Lean Hog Index is delayed from the source. Hog prices
are lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.11 with a weighted
average price of $96.84, ranging from $94.00 to $99.00 on 1,871 head and a
five-day rolling average of $96.92. Pork cutouts total 206.84 loads with 190.35
loads of pork cuts and 16.50 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.02,
$101.83.
Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the pork and hog markets of
2026. Pork production for 2026 was decreased by 40 million pounds as slaughter
speeds in the second half of the year are anticipated. Quarterly price
projections for 2026 were decreased as hogs in the third quarter of 2026 are
now anticipated to average $69 (down $2.00 from last month's report), hogs in
the fourth quarter are anticipated to average $58 (down $4.00 from last month),
hogs in the first quarter of 2027 are expected to average $62 (unchanged from
last month) and hogs in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $68.
Pork imports for 2026 were increased by 25 million pounds and pork exports for
2026 were decreased by 15 million pounds.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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