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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 03/09 11:53
Volatility Hits Cattle Complex Monday
The livestock complex is moving lower into Monday's noon hour as traders are
skeptical of the market's trajectory.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is off to rough start for the week as all three of the
markets are trading lower into Monday's noon hour. New showlists appear to be
mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado. May corn is
down 4 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $3.80. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average is down 345.14 points and NASDAQ is up 15.64 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
It's almost as if the cattle complex thinks cattlemen and traders alike
would grow weary if the market simply traded in a lackadaisical mundane fashion
as opposed to the rollercoaster ride it turns into at times. Which perfectly
describes the market's $3.00 to $4.00 decline Monday morning as news broke late
last week that union workers will indeed strike at the JBS packing plant in
Greeley, Colorado. The strike is expected to happen the week of March 16, and
JBS intends to shift production to other facilities during that time. This
causes great anxiousness for the cattle complex as the market is already seeing
minimal throughput from packers as they try to manage their margins to the best
of their ability. It also raises the question: How is this going to affect beef
consumers? Unfortunately, a level of uneasiness will likely reside within the
market until this ordeal is played out; expect continued volatility until then.
April live cattle are down $4.40 at $230.15, June live cattle are down $4.37 at
$227.10 and August live cattle are down $3.80 at $225.45. New showlists appear
to be mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado.
Last week Southern live cattle traded at $240, which is $4.00 lower than the
previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at $380,
which is $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.44 ($390.66) and select up $2.28
($381.23) with a movement of 21 loads (11.41 loads of choice, 2.75 loads of
select, zero loads of trim and 7.13 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
As expected, the feeder cattle complex has noted the decline in the live
cattle market and consequently elected to send its contracts tumbling $4.00 to
$5.00 lower into Monday's noon hour. March feeders are down $4.30 at $351.32,
April feeders are down $5.22 at $346.45 and May feeders are down $5.80 at
$342.27. Until the live cattle complex settles down and trade in a more stable
manner, the feeder cattle contracts will likely continue to scale lower.
LEAN HOGS:
Not even the lean hog complex can trade higher Monday morning as its market
is also seeing a slight regression into the noon hour. April lean hogs are down
$0.67 at $94.95, June lean hogs are down $1.42 at $99.42 and July lean hogs are
down $1.07 at $111.62. For the lean hog complex the market's resistance seems
to be inflicting pressure more than anything else.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 3/6/2026 is up $0.13 at $90.87, and the
actual index for 3/5/2026 is up $0.19 at $90.74. Hog prices are unavailable on
the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can
see that 2,190 head have traded and the market's five-day rolling average now
sits at $91.56. Pork cutouts total 135.42 loads with 114.95 loads of pork cuts
and 20.47 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.80, $102.07.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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